Understanding the Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
The Central Limit Theorem states that if you take sufficiently large random samples from any population, the distribution of the sample means will approximately follow a normal distribution, regardless of the original population's distribution. This holds true even if the original population distribution is not normal.
Key Principles and Conditions
The "sufficiently large" sample size is typically considered to be n > 30. The samples must be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). The mean of the sample means will be equal to the population mean (μ), and the standard deviation of the sample means (known as the standard error) will be σ/√n, where σ is the population standard deviation and n is the sample size.
A Practical Example
Imagine a factory produces lightbulbs, and their lifespan (the population) is skewed, with many failing early. If you repeatedly take random samples of 50 lightbulbs, calculate the average lifespan for each sample, and then plot these averages, the distribution of these average lifespans will look like a bell curve (normal distribution), centered around the true average lifespan of all lightbulbs produced.
Importance and Applications
The CLT is crucial because it allows statisticians to make inferences about a population mean even when the population distribution is unknown. It forms the basis for many statistical hypothesis tests (like t-tests and z-tests) and confidence intervals, enabling reliable predictions and decisions in fields ranging from quality control and medical research to social sciences and finance.